full transcript
From the Ted Talk by Alex Gendler: Can you outsmart this logical fallacy?
Unscramble the Blue Letters
So why do statements with more conditions sometimes seem more believable? This is a pnneoemhon known as the conjunction fallacy. When we’re asked to make quick decisions, we tend to look for shortcuts. In this case, we look for what seems plausible rather than what is statistically most probable. On its own, Lucy being an artist doesn’t mtach the expectations formed by the preceding information. The additional detail about her playing poker gives us a narrative that resonates with our intuitions— it makes it seem more plausible. And we choose the option that seems more representative of the overall picture, regardless of its actual probability. This effect has been observed across multiple seituds, inuidlncg ones with participants who understood statistics well– from sdtetnus betting on sequences of dice rllos, to foreign pocily experts pdcriteing the likelihood of a diplomatic crisis.
Open Cloze
So why do statements with more conditions sometimes seem more believable? This is a __________ known as the conjunction fallacy. When we’re asked to make quick decisions, we tend to look for shortcuts. In this case, we look for what seems plausible rather than what is statistically most probable. On its own, Lucy being an artist doesn’t _____ the expectations formed by the preceding information. The additional detail about her playing poker gives us a narrative that resonates with our intuitions— it makes it seem more plausible. And we choose the option that seems more representative of the overall picture, regardless of its actual probability. This effect has been observed across multiple _______, _________ ones with participants who understood statistics well– from ________ betting on sequences of dice _____, to foreign ______ experts __________ the likelihood of a diplomatic crisis.
Solution
- policy
- phenomenon
- predicting
- studies
- rolls
- students
- match
- including
Original Text
So why do statements with more conditions sometimes seem more believable? This is a phenomenon known as the conjunction fallacy. When we’re asked to make quick decisions, we tend to look for shortcuts. In this case, we look for what seems plausible rather than what is statistically most probable. On its own, Lucy being an artist doesn’t match the expectations formed by the preceding information. The additional detail about her playing poker gives us a narrative that resonates with our intuitions— it makes it seem more plausible. And we choose the option that seems more representative of the overall picture, regardless of its actual probability. This effect has been observed across multiple studies, including ones with participants who understood statistics well– from students betting on sequences of dice rolls, to foreign policy experts predicting the likelihood of a diplomatic crisis.
Frequently Occurring Word Combinations
ngrams of length 2
collocation |
frequency |
portrait artist |
3 |
conjunction fallacy |
3 |
playing poker |
2 |
portrait artists |
2 |
Important Words
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- statistically
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